Weak growth, falling consumption: where a company finds growth in 2027
Raiffeisen Bank expects Romania’s real GDP to fall by 0.5% in 2026 and to recover to +1.5% in 2027. Consumption and real wages are falling, and the number of employees has been declining since February 2025. In a market that no longer grows on its own, a company’s growth comes mostly from inside: faster decisions, less friction and disciplined execution.
What does Romania’s economy look like at the end of 2026?
Romania is the only economy in the region for which Raiffeisen expects a contraction in 2026. The second quarter still came in above expectations: −0.4% year on year, but +0.5% on the first quarter.
Source: Raiffeisen Bank, presentation at Be Inspired, Make it Happen, Oradea, 8 October 2026.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Annual inflation | 6.7%, then 4.2% | end of 2026, end of 2027 (forecast) |
| Policy interest rate | cuts could resume in August 2027, towards 5.75% | end of 2027 (forecast) |
| Net average earnings | +3% nominal (+3.6% private, +0.6% public), falling in real terms | January–July 2026 |
| Household consumption | falling | Q3 2025–Q2 2026 |
| Public investment | 8.1% of GDP, up from 7.2% in 2025 | January–August 2026 |
By sector, the picture is mixed. Construction performs best, supported by projects under Romania’s Recovery and Resilience Plan. Industry is contracting, on a downward path since 2019. Services, the largest sector, are weak in 2026 as well.
What do entrepreneurs expect for 2027?
A Raiffeisen Bank survey of 300 entrepreneurs, running companies with €1–50 million in turnover, shows cautious optimism. One in two expects turnover to grow in 2027, but only 30% expect higher profitability.
- Main risks: fiscal and legislative instability (44%), higher taxes (40%), falling consumption and demand (34%), rising operating costs (25%).
- Priorities: cutting costs (40%), protecting and growing profitability (40%), operational efficiency (34%).
- Foreign markets: around 40% already operate outside Romania.
The priorities are defensive. Most companies are preparing to protect their margin, not to win market share.
Where does growth come from when the market stops growing?
In good years, demand covers up many internal problems. In a year like 2027, they show up in the margin. The Brand–Culture–Performance model says that sustainable performance is coherence, alignment and relevance multiplied together, divided by organisational friction. When market relevance cannot grow on the back of demand, the fastest lever is the denominator.
- Choose explicitly where you stop competing. Construction and foreign markets are growing; domestic consumption is not. Strategic coherence means moving resources to where they matter, not spreading them evenly.
- Reduce friction before cutting costs. A budget cut that leaves slow approvals in key decisions and processes, and conflicting KPIs, untouched does not change the denominator.
- Keep your good people. A weaker labour market does not make talent cheap. Staff turnover costs more in a year when every customer counts.
- Put execution on a rhythm. A monthly dashboard, one owner per initiative and decisions taken on time.
From my experience
In a 2026 marked by economic uncertainty, intense competition and growing pressure on margins, an entrepreneurial company with almost three decades in electrical equipment distribution kept investing in people, processes and digitalisation. It understood that market performance starts inside: with an aligned, professional leadership team supported by a leadership development programme, with key roles secured, technical skills developed, clearer and more efficient processes, and systems adapted to the needs of the business and its customers. By the end of Q3, the company had kept its turnover and profitability on target, while maintaining the investments that support its long-term competitiveness.
Frequently asked questions
Will Romania’s economy grow in 2027?
Raiffeisen Bank expects +1.5% in 2027, after −0.5% in 2026, and +2.7% in 2028. Uncertainty remains high, especially because of energy prices.
When could interest rates fall?
In Raiffeisen’s baseline scenario, the National Bank of Romania would resume cutting its policy rate in August 2027, reaching 5.75% by the end of the year.
What can a company do in a year of weak growth?
Concentrate resources on the segments that are growing, reduce internal friction before cutting costs, and keep its key people.
Sources
- Raiffeisen Bank, “Romania – Macroeconomic developments and outlook”, presentation at Be Inspired, Make it Happen, Oradea, 8 October 2026, organised by Asociația B-Leader and Doingbusiness.ro, powered by Raiffeisen Bank Romania. Underlying data from the National Bank of Romania, the National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat and the Ministry of Finance.
- Raiffeisen Bank, survey of 300 entrepreneurs with turnover between €1 million and €50 million, presented at the same event.